Indian Political Dramas

[Aupmanyav]

Gujarat (Mahatma Gandhi's state, officially a dry state), is where Narendra Modi was the Chief Minister for 13 years (2001-2014) before he became the Prime Minister. It is a tough, contentious election which will have its affect in the 2019 national elections. It is being fought tooth and nail by the ruling party, Bharatiya Janata Party (commonly known as the Hindu party) and Indian National Congress (the displaced Nehru-Gandhi dynastic party, whose command has recently given from Sonia Maino Gandhi to Rahul Gandhi, the fourth-generation heir). Enjoy:

The leaders, Narendra Modi, Rahul Gandhi.


https://www.google.co.in/search?dcr=0&s ... 4sUuPXCrUQ
https://www.aninews.in/news/national/ge ... 811160001/

[Aupmanyav]

Trust in Narendra Modi sways Gujarat voters towards BJP, makes Congress' campaign mere sound and fury

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/gujar ... 49207.html

[Aupmanyav]

As of now, 68% voting by 5 pm, a record, but many people are still voting because the rule is that all those people who joined the que till 5 pm are allowed to vote. So this percentage is going to be higher when we get the final figures. The results come only on Dec. 18, after the second phase of voting on Dec. 14. However, the media will be allowed to publish the exit polls after the last person in the line on that day has voted. We go strictly by rules.

[Aupmanyav]

Same 68% voting in the second phase conducted today as well.

Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh exit polls are out and are unanimous.

1. BJP seems to have wrested Himachal Prdesh from Congress by a huge majority (something like 2/3).

2.In Gujarat, BJP retains a clear majority. The only question is that whether they get more seats or less than before (120 out of 182) in a fiercely contested election.

[Aupmanyav]

BJP has won both the states. Although they increased the vote share marginally in Gujarat but lost as far as number of seats go. It is like 100 for BJP and 80 for Congress in a house of 182 - still a clear majority. BJP wins Gujarat elections for the sixth consecutive time. The current situation in India:



Himachal Pradesh is the Himalayan state just below Kashmir at the top. Orange is BJP ruled, yellow is BJP in coalition, Blue is Gandhis and Congress, maroon is other parties. Next are elections in three of our Eastern states (2 blue, one maroon - Congress and Communist) in March 2018.

[Aupmanyav]

Gujarat: BJP 99 (49), Congress 80 (41), Others 3
Himachal Pradesh: BJP 44 (49), Congress 21 (42), Others 3
(Vote Share in brackets)

[Aupmanyav]

While polling for Tripura elections will be held on 18 February, the states of Nagaland and Meghalaya will go to polls on 27 February. Counting for all the three states will be held on 3 March.

Interesting, because all have a high percentage of tribals. Nagaland and Meghalaya are majority Christians. Nagaland is ruled by a coalition partner of the ruling party, BJP. Meghalaya, the state where Cherapunji, the place which has the highest rainfall average in the world exists, has always been ruled by Congress. Tripura has been ruled by Communists for the last 25 years.

[Aupmanyav]

The party got 67 seats out of 70 in the last election for Delhi state. Made 20 members into Parliamentary Secretaries (Indian parties do this to satisfy people who do not get ministerial berths). But AAP did this without the constitutional safe-guards. As a result the legislators became enjoyers of "office of profit" which is not permitted. Now in the 3rd year of their term 20 legislators have been disqualified by the Election Commision. The Courts will hear the case but have not given AAP a stay order. The case is likely to be dismissed. The President has signed the order. We will have elections in these 20 constituencies within six months. AAP is not riding a wave as it did in the last election and is going to loose some face. It has tried its hand in some other states but has failed. The Delhi AAP Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal has taken a strident anti-Modi view, and the Modi's party has done every thing to hamper the work of the Delhi government. By this time Congress also has found its feet, so we will have a triangular election. More fun.

[Aupmanyav]

Former Bihar Chief Minister and a former Indian Railway minister, Lalu Yadav, a heavy-weight in Indian politics, has been sentenced for 3 1/2 years for seating the fodder meant for cows and buffaloes. He has already received a six-year jail term in a similar case. The second punishment mean that he would not be able to get bail/Parole. The case involves financial irregularities amounting to some 150 million USD. Actually nearly all members of his family are under investigation because they all ere involved in illegal financial dealings.

[Aupmanyav]

Another judgement against Laloo Prasad. This time five years in jail and a million Rupee fine in the third case. A total of 13 1/2 years. He has three more cases against him. Cooked very well. Won't be able to get bail. Another former Chief Minister from Congress, Jagannatha Mishra, awarded 5 years in jail.

[Aupmanyav]

Election coming up in two Christian majority states - Meghalaya and Nagaland; and in the communist-ruled state Tripura. Small states, but important for momentum. BJP has had a few set-backs in recent bye-election. Meghalaya church has spoken against BJP and Modi. This is unconstitutional and criminal, bringing religion into politics. A big election coming up in May for Karnataka.

[Aupmanyav]

Poll in the communist-ruled state, Tripura, over peacefully. Some 80% voted. Results will come on March 3. simultaneously and after polling in the Christian-majority states, Meghalaya and Nagaland are over.

Modi government has been rattled by two bank scams. One by Vijay Mallya, a liquor and airline moghul ammounting to USD 1.3 billion, and the other by Nirav Modi, a diamond trader amounting to at least USD 1.7 billion. Systemic failure, BJP government not involved. Take loan, hide money in tax heavens (don't know why they let them exist), and scoot to other countries. Mallya is in UK, Nirav is supposed to be in US. Indian government will try to get them back here for recovery of the money and punishment.

[Aupmanyav]

Meghalaya polling is above 90%. Creditable.

Cherapunji (highest rain in a month, 370 inches), Double-decker living roots bridge, Lime stone caves, Meghalaya, Meghalaya people

[Aupmanyav]

Drama, drama, and more drama in Indian politics.

Delhi is ruled by an up-start political party, AAP (Aam Aadmi Party - Common Men's Party). They have an absolute absolute majority in the Delhi legislature, 67 seats out of 70, leaving just 3 for Mr. Modi's party BJP and wiping out the Gandhi Congress totally. That is what we call as 'lahar' (wave, tsunami) in India. They were supported by Muslims and people who thought, Arvind Kejriwal, the AAP leader was a messiah. Now the shine is off.

Kejriwal was very abrasive towards Prime Minister Modi, and Modi too is not one not to answer a challenge. Delhi does not have full powers as a state. It is a union territory. The final authority in a union territory is a Lieutenant Governor, who answers to the Central Government. So Modi put his favorites as Lieutenant Governors who emasculated Kejriwal (interfered in all decisions, postings and financial decisions of Delhi Government).

Finally, on Wednesday, Kejriwal called the Delhi Chief Secretary to his official residence at midnight, and two legislators beat him up for not doing what the AAP government wanted - release money for promotional advertisements for the Delhi Government. They were celebrating three years of AAP in the saddle. The Secretary registered a case against his attackers with the police. Police arrested the two legislators and put them in jail.

Now a Chief Secretary of Delhi is an officer of IAS Cadre (Indian Administrative Services), the highest in Indian officialdom. So all the officers in Delhi Government have refused to report to their political masters. They are being supported by the officers of 24 Indian states out of a total of 29. They want Kejriwal to apologize. An apology means that what the secretary says about the attack is true and will go against the legislators. The chief Minister and the Deputy Chief Minister will also become partners to the crime as they had called the Chief Secretary for the meeting. The adviser to the Chief Minister has accepted that the Secretary was attacked in his presence.

Today a posse of 55 police personnel visited the Chief Minister's residence trying to collect evidence about the incident. They have taken away all CCTV recordings at the Chief Minister's residence.

So, what would happen? Government will have difficult time in its day-to-day affairs and the Delhi people may want it to resign. Modi may not want to get the Delhi Government dismissed because it may make them martyrs. Though he can do that since the president and Vice President also are from his party.


News reports here: https://news.google.com/news/story/dGgP ... n-IN&gl=IN

[Aupmanyav]

Elections in two Christian majority states completed. Results on March 3. 67% voted in Meghalaya and 75% in Nagaland.

[Aupmanyav]

People are stocking 'Gulal', the coloured powder used in the Holi festival and will use the same for celebrating whichever party comes to power in the communist ruled Tripura. Communists will use red powder and BJP will use saffron/orange coloured powder.

“Red and saffron gulaal are in heavy demand. While red is going between Rs 35 and Rs 60 per kg, the price of saffron gulaal has risen from below Rs 50 per kg to Rs 120,”
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... AZucN.html

[Aupmanyav]

Modi has won two states. Formerly Communist Tripura with a 2/3 majority. The Christian majority state Nagaland was already aligned with him. They win 58 out of 60 seats that went to polls. The other Christian majority state, Meghalaya also seems to have gone the Modi way gone, since they are in a better position to form a government, though BJP itself has won just 2 of the 59 seats that had gone to polls.



Meghalaya (?) NPP + UDP + BJP = 19 + 8 + 2 = 29 Need one more vote to form government out of 59 seats
Tripura 43, 73% out of 59 seats
Nagaland NPF + BJP = 29 + 29 = 58 out of 60 seats

[Aupmanyav]

After spectaclular win in East India, Modi has had an equally spectacular political rebuff when BJP lost three parliamentary seats to opposition one of which was with them for 25 years, the constituency of the Uttar Pradesh Chief minister and head of the Gorakhpur religious order, Yogi Adityanath. Now, if not for the associate parties, the BJP majority in Indian parliament (lower house) has reduced to just one seat. BJP will have to prove its strength in the up-coming May elections in the state of Karnataka (Bangalore). That is not going to be easy.

[Aupmanyav]

A no-confidence motion against the Modi government has been tabled by a small regional party, YSR Congress, 9 members in Parliament). Telugu Desam party (Andhra Pradesh) which has 16 members in the Parliament and was a part of BJP coalition has severed its relations with BJP. But there is no chance of an upheaval because Anna DMK (Tmilnadu) which has 37 members in the Parliament will support BJP.

Furthermore, a defeat for BJP will mean immediate National elections and no party will like that. Elections costs a lot.

[Aupmanyav]

And only BJP has lots of money.

[Aupmanyav]

That is the last large state governed by Congress/Nehru-Gandhi dynasty (60 million people). Our man (speaking for the Hindu party, BJP, Yediurappa) is as corrupt as anyone else (It is a mineral rich state, much of the corruption happens in that sphere). Muslims are dead against us and the lower castes also are in turmoil. To top it, a section of our traditional voters, the Lingayats, want to be considered as a separate religion and not Hindus. Now, BJP cannot agree to that. It is against any further fractionalization of Hindus. The Congress Chief Minister has come out with a separate Karnataka flag to flame fissiparous tendencies. A touch fight on hand for BJP. Only a big mobilization of the party workers can make a difference.

[Aupmanyav]

A huge protest all over India, arson, motor vehicles put on fire, railway tracks uprooted, fire-arms used. 12 dead including one policeman. No count of the injured, due to the agitators of police cane charges, hundreds arrested.

Reason: The Supreme Court said that arrest of a person accused of denigrating dalits or causing them harm without first investigating the charges is unconstitutional as it may put an innocent person in trouble.

The Opposition parties said Modi and BJP are diluting the law for atrocities against dalits. Modi government asks for a review, Supreme Court sticks to the decision. They say they find no reason to revert their decision. The accused person also has his/her rights. No arrest without a preliminary investigation.

The Opposition is gearing up against the Modi government. They know they cannot beat BJP separately, so they have all banded together (though many of them will not partner with Congress). Tough fight ahead for Modi in the 2019 elections.